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Dealing (and planning) with extreme uncertainty

Updated: Apr 6, 2023

We are almost all facing uncertainty at the moment - as organisations and individuals. And in that situation, how can you possibly plan what to do next?

Working through scenarios, even to identify indicators, is the key. I really like this approach from the HBR article (link below). Most businesses will be somewhere between A Range of Futures and True Ambiguity. Even when facing True Ambiguity though, planning is not a waste of time. Instead try to: - Avoid defaulting to ‘gut feel’ or group think. - List out what you know and what is possible to know - Develop a high-level lists of possible outcomes/scenarios – this thinking will help you, even if you cannot get to a definitive answer - Outline what indicators you might be able to spot that will help you see which ways things are moving – this will help you be in a good position as things become clearer - Keep agile and adapt above as new information becomes available And, of course, this approach is valid way to get your own thoughts and feelings into perspective, not just for companies (however large or small) How are you approaching planning ahead right now when the way forward is a little murky? #strategicplanning #planningwithuncertainty

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